{"id":47994,"date":"2021-04-15T10:06:54","date_gmt":"2021-04-15T10:06:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.retaildetail.be\/algemeen\/one-five-stores-finds-itself-danger-zone\/"},"modified":"2021-04-15T10:06:54","modified_gmt":"2021-04-15T10:06:54","slug":"one-five-stores-finds-itself-danger-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retaildetail.be\/nl\/news\/algemeen\/one-five-stores-finds-itself-danger-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cE\u00e9n op vijf winkels bevindt zich in gevarenzone\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Straks mogen de niet-essenti\u00eble winkels in de Benelux weer voluit openen, maar hoe groot is hun overlevingskans? Wordt het een slagveld of een veerkrachtig herstel? Locatus berekende de risico\u2019s en ziet de impact van de coronapandemie.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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Risicoprofielen<\/h2>\n

Elk jaar berekent winkelvastgoedexpert Locatus voor ruim 140.000\u00a0winkels in Nederland en ruim 120.000\u00a0winkels in Belgi\u00eb de kans dat ze het komend jaar zullen overleven. De onderzoekers berekenen de Retail Risk Index (RRI) op basis van de evoluties in winkelpanden over de afgelopen tien jaar, aangevuld met de verwachte impact van COVID-19. De RRI wordt uitgedrukt op een schaal van 50 (zeer laag risicoprofiel) tot 150 (zeer hoog risicoprofiel): een verkooppunt met een RRI hoger dan 120 valt in de groep met een verhoogd risicoprofiel, wat staat voor een grote kans op stoppen in het komende jaar<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Het is geen nattevingerwerk: in de groep van winkels met een verhoogd risico blijkt 60% van de winkels inderdaad binnen drie jaar te zijn gestopt. In de groep van winkels met een laag risico is dat minder dan 10%.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Belgi\u00eb \u2013 Nederland<\/h2>\n

In Nederland bevindt zich momenteel 18% van alle verkooppunten in de gevarenzone, in Belgi\u00eb is dat percentage iets hoger met ruim 20%. Dat betekent niet dat al die winkels zullen verdwijnen: elk jaar stopt gemiddeld 10% van de winkeliers, maar er komen ook nieuwe ondernemers bij, zodat het aantal gevulde winkelpanden ‘slechts’ daalt met 0,5\u00a0tot\u00a01%. Als er in 2021 minder nieuwe ondernemers durven in te stappen, dan wordt het echter w\u00e9l denkbaar dat er plotseling 5%\u00a0minder gevulde winkelpanden zijn. Dat percentage kan in sommige winkelgebieden zelfs oplopen tot meer dan 10% – met nefaste gevolgen voor de beleving en de levensvatbaarheid.<\/p>\n

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Limburg loopt het hoogste risico<\/h2>\n

De afgelopen decennia deden stedelijke gebieden het beter en scoorden provinciale gebieden zwakker op de Retail Risk Index. Achterblijvers zijn de Nederlandse provincies Limburg, Drenthe, Groningen en Zeeland en de Belgische provincies Limburg, Henegouwen, Luik en Luxemburg. Vergrijzing en ontvolking zijn de belangrijkste oorzaken.<\/p>\n

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Dat zou kunnen veranderen: sinds de pandemie neemt de noodzaak af om dicht bij het werk te wonen. Dat kan winkelgebieden in de provincies op termijn weer sterker maken, maar die trend is nog heel recent en uit zich voorlopig niet in de cijfers.<\/p>\n

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Provincies met het hoogste risicoprofiel (RRI > 120)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Belgi\u00eb\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00a0Nederland<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1. Limburg 26,2% \u00a0<\/td>\n1. Limburg 29,3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2. Luxemburg 25,6%<\/td>\n2. Drenthe 23,6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3. Henegouwen 25,4%<\/td>\n3. Groningen 23,0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Kansen voor kleinere winkelgebieden<\/h2>\n

Grote binnensteden hadden tot voor kort de grootste aantrekkingskracht voor shoppers. Nu lijkt een kentering plaats te vinden: mensen shoppen door corona vaker in de buurt en online. Voor 2021 verwacht de Retail Risk Index dat de grotere winkelgebieden in toenemende mate onder druk komen te staan. Kleinere winkelgebieden die voorzien in dagelijkse behoeften zullen naar verwachting slechts beperkt geraakt worden door COVID-19 of zelfs verbeteren.<\/p>\n

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Supermarkt wint, mode verliest<\/h2>\n

Niet elke retailsector loopt evenveel risico, en zowel in Nederland als Belgi\u00eb zien we dezelfde trends. In de kopgroep: de essenti\u00eble branches en de branches die online (nog) nauwelijks concurrentie ondervinden – denk aan supermarkten, voedingswinkels, opticiens, apothekers, tuincentra, keuken- en badkamerspecialisten, slaapwinkels, kappers en schoonheidssalons.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bedreigd worden retailers die geconfronteerd worden met vergelijkend winkelen, die geconcentreerd zijn in de grote winkelgebieden, leunen op pendelaars of toeristen, of die concurrentie ondervinden van online aanbieders: mode, horeca, sportzaken, woondecoratie, cadeauartikelen.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Het aantal winkels dat zich genoodzaakt ziet te stoppen, zal onvermijdelijk hoger zijn dan ooit, denkt Locatus. Retailers die w\u00e9l overleven, hebben vaak een onderscheidende propositie, zoals Action<\/strong>, dat hard groeit tegen de stroom in. Ook persoonlijke binding en hoge klanttevredenheid zijn succesfactoren. Een sterke combinatie van offline en online is goud waard. Vernieuwende dienstverlening is een groeisegment: denk aan fitnesscentra, schoonheidssalons en escape rooms.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Straks mogen de niet-essenti\u00eble winkels in de Benelux weer voluit openen, maar hoe groot is hun overlevingskans? Wordt het een slagveld of een veerkrachtig herstel? Locatus berekende de risico\u2019s en ziet de impact van de coronapandemie. \u00a0 Risicoprofielen Elk jaar berekent winkelvastgoedexpert Locatus voor ruim 140.000\u00a0winkels in Nederland en ruim 120.000\u00a0winkels in Belgi\u00eb de kans […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47992,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"people":[],"extra":[43],"company":[],"topic":[],"region":[],"class_list":["post-47994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-algemeen","extra-plus"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u201cE\u00e9n op vijf winkels bevindt zich in gevarenzone\u201d - RetailDetail BE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Straks mogen de niet-essenti\u00eble winkels in de Benelux weer voluit openen, maar hoe groot is hun overlevingskans? 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